The New York exodus is coming to an end. A new report by Eastdil Secured and Nancy Packes Data Services — “Homeward Bound” — says the City will return to positive inward migration this month.
This is the second report undertaken by the research partnership during the pandemic. The previous one, called “The Great Migration”, showed how swathes of New Yorkers had escaped the Big Apple — often to their second homes. Last May, we reported on the rent crisis that was forcing a NYC exodus.
This month, the number of people coming to New York City is expected to again exceed those who pack their bags and leave, according to latest statistics.
The report was compiled by studying post office data on change of addresses using ZIP Codes.
The figures show that in March and April last year the net outflow of New Yorkers was 68,193 — and over the year the total outflow was 220,885. This month the net outward figure should return to zero, because fewer people are leaving the City, and more are returning.
The report says the outward migration was the result of pandemic fears and job losses, but the reversal to inward migration began well before the advent of any vaccine, based on job creation that began in June last year, while the pandemic was still raging.
One trend noted in the report is that rents in Manhattan have been rising again since January this year. “Currently, rent in core Manhattan is 4.6% above the low,” they say.